Global Macro Views September 2024The Fed’s Path ForwardWe break down the Fed’s path toward policy adjustments.Global Macro Views | BlogRead Global Macro Views September 2024Cool, Sahm and CollectedThe fear of recession begins to spread as unemployment rises in the US jobs report.Global Macro Views | BlogRead Global Macro Views July 2024We Told You So…We believe markets should avoid pricing for a rate cut in September. Here’s why. Global Macro Views | BlogRead Fed Thoughts July 2024Fed Thoughts: Will the Fed Swipe Left or Right?We determine if the position of price stability will sway the Fed to restrict or ease policy.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Precision in Practice July 2024Hidden Complexity: Challenges of Managing to the AggThe Agg fulfills a crucial role for investors, but replicating the benchmark is complicated. Discover our solution. Precision in Practice | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts June 2024The Natural or Neutral Rate of Interest, or R* in BriefWe examine the natural or neutral rate of interest, also known as r*.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts May 2024Fed Thoughts: Playing with BlocksWe weigh the key risks that may impact the Federal Reserve’s judgment in the upcoming FOMC meeting.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Precision with Purpose April 2024Proxy Voting Report Spring 2024Read about the variety of topics Mellon voted on from July to December 2023.Precision with Purpose | White PaperRead Global Macro Views April 2024Commercial Real Estate Debt WallThe commercial real estate debt wall may impact regional bank lenders’ profits in 2024.Global Macro Views | BlogRead Global Macro Views March 2024Inflation Pressures Rise in JapanThe Bank of Japan has lifted its policy rate out of negative territory this Spring. Global Macro Views | BlogRead Fed Thoughts February 2024Fed Thoughts: The Body PoliticHow will the political landscape impact the timing on Federal Reserve’s policy shifts?Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts January 2024Fed Thoughts: Boats Against the CurrentThe potential challenges the Fed faces in the fight against inflation.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Global Macro Views January 2024Marching towards a rate cut?Global Economist Nick Tocchio speculates a potential rate cut following the December FOMC meeting.Global Macro Views | BlogRead Global Macro Views January 20242024 Global Economic OutlookOur experts analyze the global economic landscape of 2024.Global Macro Views | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts December 2023Fed Thoughts: The Gravitational Pull on Monetary PolicyChief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart explains the importance of how the Federal Reserve communicates its policy intentions.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts October 2023Fed Thoughts: Back to the FutureChief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart offers details on the Federal Reserve’s goal to keep the policy rate “higher for longer.”Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Global Macro Views October 2023We Get QuestionsChief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart and Global Economist Nicholas Tocchio answer client questions about current economic issues.Global Macro Views | White PaperRead Precision with Purpose October 2023Proxy Voting Report Fall 2023Read about the variety of topics Mellon voted on during the 2023 proxy season.Precision with Purpose | White PaperRead Market Observations July 2023The Nasdaq-100® Index Special RebalanceWe examine the details behind the rebalancing and what prompted it.Market Observations | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts July 2023Fed Thoughts: The Last MileChief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart describes how the Federal Reserve (Fed) is approaching the last mile of its rate-hiking campaign.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations June 2023Modern MonetarismChief Economist Vincent Reinhart explains why the monetary base is a useful recession indicator—when measured correctly. Market Observations | White PaperRead Market Observations April 2023Beware the Ides of MarchChief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart answers lingering questions from the market action during March.Market Observations | White PaperRead Precision with Purpose March 2023Proxy Voting Report Spring 2023Find out how we advocate for our clients’ best interests through engagement in the Spring 2023 Proxy Voting Report. Precision with Purpose | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts March 2023Fed Thoughts: The Long and Short of Policy ChoiceChief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart predicts March Federal Reserve (Fed) action and outlines the potential short- and long-term consequences.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations February 2023The Debt Ceiling: The Other Nuclear ThreatChief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart breaks down the debt ceiling for investors.Market Observations | White PaperRead Market Observations November 2022Ready, Set, SmileExplore the forces driving US dollar strength and its impact on global benchmark performance. Market Observations | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts October 2022Fed Thoughts: Operating at a Loss We review the arithmetic of inflation ahead of the November 1-2 FOMC meeting.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations August 2022The Price of TighteningIf the Fed is overly optimistic about the path to control inflation, current equity valuations may be rife for a correction.Market Observations | ArticleRead Fed Thoughts August 2022Fed Thoughts: Suspension of Disbelief We review the July 26-27 FOMC meeting and the dangers of disinflation optimism.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations July 2022Who is in Charge?Super-sized moves ahead? What the latest set of staggering data may mean for the July 26-27 FOMC meeting.Market Observations | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts July 2022Fed Thoughts: That Was the Week That WasWhat can we learn from the Wall Street Journal leak ahead of the June 13 FOMC meeting?Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations June 2022Recession RisksThe Federal Reserve’s response to lost price stability puts the US economy on a path to recession. We discuss the risks. Market Observations | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts June 2022Fed Thoughts: Wake Me When September EndsWe explain why the Federal Open Market Committee might diverge from gradualism later this year.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations May 2022LUNA(cy)Investors should draw as many lessons as possible from the recent collapse of the stablecoin UST and its crypto token twin LUNA. We offer three.Market Observations | ArticleRead Fed Thoughts May 2022Fed Thoughts: Niagara FallsWith the Fed late in its turn toward containing inflation, fifty-basis-point dominoes should begin to fall.Fed Thoughts | ArticleRead Market Observations April 2022Reverse Engineering a RecessionFour popular predicators of recession may individually have predictive power for business-cycle turning.Market Observations | White PaperRead Market Observations April 2022The Risk of RecessionWe briefly outline our views on the risk of a recession in the US and Europe and how China-US relations are evolving. Market Observations | White PaperRead Market Observations March 2022Between a Rock and a Hard PlaceThe Federal Reserve faces increasingly difficult choices amid large-scale inflation and shocks to both global aggregate supply and demand.Market Observations | ArticleRead Fed Thoughts January 2022We Are Where We AreWhat does the Federal Open Market Committee and pandemic Pelotons have in common? Find out in the latest Fed Thoughts.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations November 2021The Forgotten Secrets of the Hidden TempleWill President Biden follow the script set in autumn 1979 or risk rocking the market boat? We explore precedents and presidents in the highly anticipated Fed chair appointment.Market Observations | ArticleRead Fed Thoughts November 2021Fed Thoughts: Swipe Right or Left on Chair Powell?The current decision of note on monetary policy is not about action but personnel. Will President Biden choose to reappoint Fed Chair Jay Powell?Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts September 2021Fed Thoughts: Highway to the Danger ZoneAdjusting monetary policy can take the maneuvering of a professional pilot. How will the Fed manage the landing?Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations September 2021Here We Go Again: The Debt CeilingWhat is the likelihood that the Congress will fail to raise the debt ceiling? We review causes for worry and likely outcomes in the latest dramatic and costly standoff on Capitol Hill.Market Observations | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts August 2021Fed Thoughts: The Potomac River Delta GamblerThe house dealer, Fed Chair Jay Powell, has been pressed to the wall as a succession of his colleagues up the ante on an early exit.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Global Macro Views August 2021Global Macro Views: Read the Footnote, Every PageAs the coronavirus boxes about the path of economic growth, the Global Macro Forum examines the worthiness of its opponents and the dangers of outcome-based investing.Global Macro Views | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts July 2021Fed Thoughts: The Sociology of Central BankersThree behavioral traits of central bankers are shared around the world.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts June 2021Fed Thoughts: A Feature, Not a BugThe Federal Reserve will likely continue outcome-based rather than outlook-driven policymaking in the face of mounting inflation pressures and dollar depreciation.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Global Macro Views May 2021Global Macro Views: Turning the TideThe Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.Global Macro Views | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts March 2021Fed Thoughts: Bond Marketageddon?How does the latest Treasury sell-off compare to previous episodes?Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Global Macro Views January 2021Global Macro ViewsThe Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.Global Macro Views | White PaperRead Precision in Practice December 2020One for the Record BooksWe look at the impact of the pandemic through the lens of the US credit markets.Precision in Practice | White PaperRead Market Observations November 2020AftershockChief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the aftermath of the 2020 election and what could await President-elect Biden’s administration.Market Observations | ArticleRead Precision in Practice October 2020Vote No on VolatilityWith a looming US presidential election, our index professionals review the possibility of an uptick in election-related market volatility.Precision in Practice | White PaperRead Global Macro Views October 2020Global Macro ViewsThe Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.Global Macro Views | White PaperRead Market Observations October 2020Stress Testing the ElectionChief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines pre-election economic activity and its utility for assessing the 2020 election.Market Observations | White PaperRead Market Observations September 2020Some Good News is Bad NewsChief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses fiscal policy, incoming data, and the Mellon forecast.Market Observations | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts September 2020Jay Powell the All PowerfulChief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the Fed’s follow-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium.Fed Thoughts | ArticleRead Fed Thoughts September 2020Bringing Tablets from the MountaintopChief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the Fed’s strategy as asymmetric, ambiguous, and fit to the moment.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations September 2020Election MattersChief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the potential implications of the 2020 election.Market Observations | White PaperRead Precision in Practice September 2020A Balancing ActHow did the whipsawing market volatility impact index managers? We explore the challenges and critical considerations.Precision in Practice | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts September 2020Notes on the FedChief Economist Vincent Reinhart reviews changes to the Fed’s longer-term strategy.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Global Macro Views August 2020Global Macro ViewsThe Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.Global Macro Views | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts June 2020What Color is the Fed’s Parachute?Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the Fed’s messaging and its appetite for more unconventional stimulus.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Global Macro Views May 2020Global Macro ViewsThe Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.Global Macro Views | White PaperRead Market Observations April 2020The Near-Term Fiscal OutlookChief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the key provisions of the 2020 CARES Act.Market Observations | ArticleRead Fed Thoughts March 2020What Just Happened? Fed Cuts RatesChief Economist Vincent Reinhart unpacks the consequences of the Fed’s about-face.Fed Thoughts | ArticleRead Market Observations February 2020Years of Living DangerouslyChief Economist Vincent Reinhart offers his 2020 macro outlook and current investment map.Market Observations | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts January 2020Silence in the MountainsChief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the Fed’s outlook for 2020.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations December 2019A Conservative Party Win in the General ElectionThe Conservative Party’s general election win may spell certainty for Brexit but it also raises questions.Market Observations | ArticleRead Fed Thoughts December 2019He Who Must Not Be NamedChief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the source of the Fed’s communication confusion.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations October 2019The Right Stuff?Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the downstream effects of US-China trade policy on the macro outlook.Market Observations | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts September 2019An Apt Place and an Awkward TimeChief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the Fed’s likely path for the rest of 2019.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts July 2019Now Playing at a Theater of the Absurd Near YouChief Economist Vincent Reinhart expounds on the leadership shake-ups at the EU, ECB and IMF.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts July 2019The Sound of SilenceChief Economist Vincent Reinhart evaluates whether the Fed’s empty spaces contain multitudes.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations July 2019A Churchillian MomentChief Economist Vincent Reinhart provides an outlook for trade, the US economy and the Fed.Market Observations | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts June 2019A Riot is an Ugly ThingChief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the disconnect between futures market expectations and the Fed’s likely path.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations June 2019Intrigue and TradeChief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the state of US-China trade policy.Market Observations | White PaperRead Market Observations May 2019Powell the PadawanChief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the U.S. economy and the Fed’s change of heart.Market Observations | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts March 2019Follow the MoneyChief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the Fed’s current emphasis on its balance sheet.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations March 2019An “Unfaithfully Yours” BrexitChief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses potential Brexit outcomes and the motivation of EU and UK officials.Market Observations | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts February 2019Pay No Attention To The Man Behind The CurtainChief Economist Vincent Reinhart suggests Fed communications may be an unreliable predictor of policy.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Fed Thoughts January 2019Poles ApartChief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses potential effects of the government shutdown on the Fed’s outlook.Fed Thoughts | White PaperRead Market Observations January 2019A Really Big ShowChief Economist Vincent Reinhart details the Fed’s goal of keeping “all the plates spinning.”Market Observations | White PaperRead
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